Will Pandemic-Based Low Voter Turnout Win Trudeau An Election?
Could demographic-based voter apathy win Trudeau a 3rd term as prime minister?
Out of myriad issues related to a pending federal election, voter turn out-- as well as its inversion voter apathy-- are integral to a final outcome.
The Covid pandemic is bound to play a critical role is this scenario-- the very reason why mainstream media are set to obfuscate its impact.
Consider in-person versus online voting. The pandemic has opened the door to a vast increase in voting by computer. Who are the least savvy of these citizens? This would be elderly Canadians. From a demographic point of view, older people vote more for the Conservative Party than the Liberals. Advantage Trudeau.
According to Elections Canada, there are grounds for speculation that levels of voter turnout differ among immigrant Canadians relative to their native-born counterparts.
"Non-voters who were Canadian citizens by birth were more likely to report a lack of interest in politics as the reason for not casting a ballot (37%), compared with citizens by immigration(26%)"
"Growing numbers of immigrants come from countries where there was no opportunity to vote, and these immigrants may be less likely than other Canadians to take the right to vote for granted."
Drilling down on voter habits reveal patterns based on these identifiable communities. A Vancouver Sun article from 2018 entitled "Why Sikhs Are So Powerful In Canadian Politics" provides insight:
"The Sikh connection had been working well for Justin Trudeau, as it did for Jean Chretien. Punjabi Canadians, most of whom are Sikh, gave Trudeau a big leg up in nabbing the leadership of the federal Liberal party, which soon led him to the commanding heights of the prime minister’s office."
According to CBC News,Muslim Canadians voted overwhelmingly for the Liberal Party in the 2019 election, resulting in a second-term victory for Justin Trudeau.
Permit Cultural Action Party to distill this information down to a few cogent concepts:
General voter apathy is more prevalent among the Canadian-born. Voting during the time of a pandemic minimizes in-person voting. Calling an election at the time of a 4th Covid wave adds to the phenomenon. Online voting minimizes votes from non-internet savvy elderly Canadians.
High levels of motivation exists among voters of 3rd World origin. These Canadians overwhelmingly support the Liberals or NDP over the Conservative Party.
Advantage, Liberal Party. Could pandemic circumstances reward Justin Trudeau with all he cares about in the world-- a return to a majority government?
Add to this a simple yet profound idea: Trudeau and team are aware of every element of what we speak. Let us not suffer any illusions: these variables are the "meat and potatoes" of modern-day politics. Voter trends, data base mining, demographic analysis being fundamental to election victory.
Is Justin Trudeau leveraging the greatest social catastrophe in modern history for personal gain? Are his backers desirous of a low voter turnout? Could demographically-based voter apathy to win Justin Trudeau his 3rd term in office?
Relevant questions, all. The very reason why our media would not touch this topic with a ten-foot poll.
-- Brad Salzberg, CAP Founder (Est.2016)